Since the release of the U.N./W.H.O. report on the AIDS epidemic I have looked closely at the statistics they compiled. I now realize that the information I passed on (material taken from a news report) was inaccurate in several regards. Brazil, Mexico and Honduras have led Latin America in AIDS deaths. However, if you include the entire Caribbean, Haiti appears at the top of that list. Secondly, this rank order is a description of the past, not the future spread of the disease. Finally, the single statistic I offered was just plain wrong.

Below are some cold and crude indications of the past, present, and future drawn from the U.N./W.H.O. report. Following these three statistical portraits I have added a regional table to compare these totals with the statistics for the United States:

Total Estimated AIDS Deaths

Haiti 85,000 Brazil 80,000 Mexico ? Honduras 15,000 Argentina 12,000 Colombia 10,000 Dominican Republic 9,300 Guatemala 8,300 Ecuador 7,700 Venezuela 6,600

1997 Estimated AIDS Deaths

Brazil ? Mexico ? Haiti 13,000 Argentina 4,300 Honduras 3,100 Colombia 3,000 Dominican Republic 2,900 Venezuela 2,500 Peru 2,200 Guatemala 1,700

1997 Estimated Number of People Living With HIV/AIDS

Brazil 470,000 Haiti 190,000 Mexico 180,000 Argentina 120,000 Dominican Republic 83,000 Venezuela 82,000 Colombia 72,000 Peru 72,000 Honduras 43,000 Guatemala 27,000

Regional Comparison

Caribbean Latin America U.S. Total Population 30,932,000 451,751,000 271,648,000 Total AIDS Deaths 110,000 169,000 410,000 1997 AIDS Deaths 18,000 23,000 28,000 1997 Living With HIV/AIDS 310,000 1,190,000 820,000

-July 18, 1998

Editor’s note: For comparative purposes see
http://www.who.int/hiv/pub/epidemiology/pubepidemic2002/en/ for 2001 statistics (the most recent year for which there is data).

I have heard it said that AIDS statistics are like cockroaches, a view which mirrors my own experience sifting through this data. Nevertheless, one stunning success story has been widely acknowledged. Brazil’s willingness to face up to its AIDS epidemic has made this country and its programs a model of hope for the entire world.

© Copyright 2003 Eric Metcalf